ECB inflation forecasts from 2012 to 2020 mostly wrong in the same direction, in 2020 they changed their direction, maybe they are a reverse benchmark 
IEA sistematically undervalued renewables potential in their yearly forecasts
beware the experts, don’t believe what they say, there’s always room for things to go the way you like best
start from Gwern here https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3
parameters scaling in GPT-3 does not run into linear scaling of performance nor dimishing returns. Rather it shows metalearning enhancing the performance
It was forecast by Moraves and since we are in a fat tail phenomenon this holds true: “the scaling hypothesis is so unpopular an idea, and difficult to prove in advance rather than as a fait accompli“. Before GPT-3 another epiphany on the scaling was the google cat moment which started the deep learning craze
Another idea which I like is that models like GPT-3 are definitely cheap and if they show superlinear growth it is a no brainer to go for bigger and more complex models, it is along way before matching the billions of expenses for Cern or nuclear fusion.
Carig Venter synthetic bacteria project cost us 40 milion, ground braking orojects costing so little should not be foregone
BTW to grasp the idea of how there could be a scaling benefit in growing deep learning sizes, go no further that a simple, unfounded but suggestive analogy with Metcalfe law of networks, network value grows with the square of nodes.
1960 the year singularity was cancelled on SSC. History developed mainly in Malthusian trap, with industrialization we got out of the trap and started growing product percapita in an exponential growth. That stopped in the 60’s
German sociologist Beck sensed that capitalism was getting into its second stage, from growth to risk priority. Adam Tooze on Foreign Policy
see also Parrow with normal accidents
Noah Smith on “What happened in 1971 along the lines of singulraty cancelled in 1960. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1306264582046937088
Assuming that the secular trend was not negated, we are simply in the through of the secular cycles, how long would be this cycle and how high would the upswing carry us ? Check also Turchin and Kondratiev for longer cycles
Turchin Cliodynamics “Cliodynamics is entirely different. Its roots are in nonlinear dynamical systems. We don’t go out looking for cycles; but we don’t shy away from them when there is robust evidence for them. In Structural-Demographic Theory, in particular, oscillations arise because of nonlinear feedbacks between different interacting components of the social system (state-level society).”
with a nice chart:
fuck wordpress and the blocks editor, BTW, when a platform interface becomes baroque for some dynamics clear only to the programmers it’s probabluy time to move, it used to be easy to add an image, no longer
https://www.gwern.net/Notes#highly-potent-drugs-as-psychological-warfare-weapons
powerful nanoscale chemicals, shape-shifting crystals that infect other crystals, ice-nine after all can happen, the AIDS drugs Ritonavir that was lost to this mechanism
derek lowe on Perverse Polymorphism https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/11/26/perverse-polymorphism
“Thymos is the side of man that deliberately seeks out struggle and sacrifice, that tries to prove that the self is something better and higher than a fearful, needy, instinctual, physically determined animal. Not all men feel this pull, but for those who do, thymos cannot be satisfied by the knowledge that they are merely equal in worth to all other human beings.”
“Those who remain dissatisfied will always have the potential to restart history,” Fukuyama observes, simply because “the virtues and ambitions called forth by war are unlikely to find expression in liberal democracies.”
as per revolutions, started by disgruntled middle class in want of upward mobility, see also Urchin
“Those who remain dissatisfied will always have the potential to restart history,” Fukuyama observes, simply because “the virtues and ambitions called forth by war are unlikely to find expression in liberal democracies.”
you ought to pay respect to elder components of your society, should you also respect older components of your body, senescent cells that spread inflammation and disease ?
Unity enters phase 1 of its molecule that targets and kills senescence cells, senescent cell therapy https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/17/unity-biotechnology-and-senescent-cell-therapy
Nature just published a novel application of CAR-T therapy targeting senescent cells https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2403-9 from A16 https://a16z.com/2020/08/09/slaying-sleeper-cells-aging-car-t/
the whale ! Customer Profitability Whale Curve https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/CustomerProfitabilityWithTheWhaleCurve/ (found on the Management Myth
Cash Conversion Cycle (negative for Apple) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashconversioncycle.asp#:~:text=The%20cash%20conversion%20cycle%20(CCC)%20is%20a%20metric%20that%20expresses,into%20cash%20flows%20from%20sales.
Trailing Free Cash Flow FCF
“Amazon is run for cash, not net income. Jeff Bezos always says that he runs it for ‘trailing 12 months’ absolute free cashflow’, not net income”
TikTok wars, the tech perspective https://stratechery.com/2020/the-tiktok-war/
the political eye, a former S’pore Prime Minister https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3091343/china-and-us-new-cold-war-or-not-new-cold-war
funny how the technologist can go fully ideological in its conclusion while the politician sees ample rooms for continuing relations, not really a cold war, wrong metaphors shan’t be used because they might be self-fulfilling
Gartner Hype cycle
jazzed up version of traditional Everett Rogers’ diffusion of innovations
this was the trigger https://twitter.com/NickPinkston/status/1278353201905823745
and this is Carlota Perez curve which puts together technology and finance in a play of coupling and decoupling in the installation and deployment phases
I guess it owes something to Kondratiev, that originally was a theory of cycles in commodity prices over long periods (like 60-80 years)
and I wonder the relationships with Urchin Secular cycles more of 2 to 3 centuries due to demographic factors https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bPH2az479gzxDMbf/book-review-ages-of-discord
1500-Pound Goat 