“the precautionary principle applies when traditional statistical averages are invalid because risks are not ergodic”
“Practically all the uncertainty tends to make the problem potentially worse, not better, as these processes are convex to uncertainty.”
The Only Man Who Has A Clue
how “problems” change over time, one day everybody is musing on a robot car who (that) must choose who to kill, then a small rna virus arrives and everybody turns to the problem of mechanical ventilators, except that not, nobody wants to acknowledge that in the Covid19 epidemics thousand of critical patients are subject to rationing life/death decisions based of a simple rule or a more complex clinical evalution algorithm? And the dilemma goes: you save a 60-yearld old man in perfect shape of a 35-year old pregnant woman with breast cancer ?
Facing Covid-19 in Italy — Ethics, Logistics, and Therapeutics on the Epidemic’s Front Line
New England Journal of Medicine has a retrospective on the ICU crisis in Italy where decisions around scarce mechanical ventilators are actually done, at time of writing over 4,000 people dead and this charts show the problem in stricking clarity
the Kelly criterion or Kelly bet is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run
Kelly Bet Wikipedia