startup

Startups stock options homoploutia

Questo è un link che ti aiuta a decidere quante stock options dare alle persone che lavorano nella tua startup.

https://www.indexventures.com/optionplan/#pre_funding_valuation=7000000&initial_amount_raised=500000&expected_funding_rounds_pre_exit=seed-only&employee_country=italy&option_allocation_level=1&technical_dna=5&mode=seed

se sei dall’altra parte, quella di ricevere un’offerta da una startup, a questo link puoi trovare dei riferimenti su quanto farti pagare quante opzioni chiedere a seconda dello stage della startup

nei tempi che viviamo non c’è più la netta differenza tra lavoro e capitale, tra lavoratore e imprenditore nell accesso a redditi da capitale, il modo migliore per affrontare la vita è quella di lavorare per avere delle quote di azioni del posto in cui lavori

Questo fenomeno di crescente sovrapposizione tra il ruolo di lavoratore e capitale, si definisce homoploutia. il termine è stato coniato dall’economista Branco milanovich ed è giusto conoscere il fenomeno per capire come funziona la distribuzione del reddito la disuguaglianza nel mondo attuale.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/1339956804604874752

Questo è uno dei motivi per cui mi fa piacere lavorare con te al progetto di imparare a conoscere i mercati finanziari e gli investimenti

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IPO’s cluster bomb model

I don’t know wether the cluster bomb model is appropriate, maybe a better analogy is the virus shedding, so IPO’s would be shedding capital in the economy, infectious innovation model

in Europe this does not happen and indeed the startup scene in Europe is sort of depressing, let alone Italy where it dead

while in Israle the model worked perfectly, Waze IPO shed seed capital which sprouted in 50 unicorns less than 10 years later https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3884893,00.html

going back to Branko Milanovic homoploutis, which he found increasing in the US, will it increase in the same way in Europe? The startup capital shedding model seems a big contributo though he does not mention it in his book, in his paper it is ecluded from the data but claerly reinforces the trend http://www.lisdatacenter.org/wps/liswps/806.pdf

Chad

nel 2000, durante le lezioni che videro l’elezione di Bush, stavo ad Atlanta, avevo un amico di nome Chad e mi faceva ridere il fatto che la contesa sulle elezioni USA fosse sui chad delle schede elettorali in Florida.

Quando Gore concesse lo sentii come una presidenza scippata, ero imbevuto dell’ottimismo degli anni 90 e anche avere il figlio di Bush alla presidenza americana mi dava la netta sensazione di una china pericolosa, la fine di un’epoca. E infatti

Ero ad Atlanta e cercavo di vendere alla CNN la mia idea di internet newsgathering. Non riuscii mai ad incontrare nessuno di CNN, non riuscii ad andare oltre Cartoon Network e a ripensrci, dovevo considerarlo un segno sulla mia prima startup. L’ho fatta lo stesso tornando in Italia, dove ho poco dopo visutto il malanimo politico del g( di genova, poi sono arrivate le torri gemelle e, visto che le impressioni di Atalanta erano giuste.

Nel 2003 fornimmo a FreespeechTV la copertura via web di tutte le manifestazioni europee contro la guerra in Iraq, internet newsgathering era una realtà.

not hack? Kludge

I just now realized hack has an opposite in kludge, both originating in programming (but surely hack has a story before modern programming, in hard world)

there’s also called Kludgenomics that, once you realize kludge is contrary to hack, you also undestrand what is the problem of government messed up by too many rules badly designed, or designed with the purpose of being quick, badly designed fix. For exampe see this https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/kludgeocracy-in-america

it all comes from reading Robin Hanson on Paternalism as a way to force rules on masses that were norms of elites. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/09/rulesy-folks-push-paternalism.html

this is the first time I get to the bootm of an Hanson post and this is what captured me as the best way to explain why paternalism: “The key idea is that there are many “rulesy” people in the world. (Think of Sheldon from Big Bang Theory and Dwight from The Office.) These people specialize in learning of and even creating rules, so that they can then find and reveal violations of these rules around them. This allows them to beat on their rivals, and also to raise their own status. It obviously raises their dominance via the power they wield, but they prefer to be instead seen as prestigious, enforcing rules whose purpose is more clearly altruistic. And what could be more altruistic than keeping people from hurting themselves? “

Bayes is lean

an ignorant definition lerts me understand Bayes success in recent times

“Bayes’ core insight of gradually getting closer to the truth by constantly updating in proportion to the weight of the evidence” really lean statistics 🙂

the quote from Tetlock book on Superforecasters, I haven t read it. I neither read Lean startup, I don’t really remeber Bayes Theorem so I might be wrong in putting together things I do not study, but still the quote is suggestive

It come from here https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq

I did not know arbital, it is in less wrong territory I guess, I am going to study Bayes there

BTW all orginitase here “What relevance does this have for the LW-Yudkowsky-Bayesian rationalist project?” found in this SSC article about metis vs high rationalism. I think it’s all in the zeitgeist https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/16/book-review-seeing-like-a-state/

step back “seeing like a state” recycled as “seeeing like an algorithm” ref TikTok, I think misusued nd rather sinister but here it is Eugene Weiwei https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2020/9/18/seeing-like-an-algorithm

Confirmation bias and New Thought

“By 1890, this stream of religious philosophy had morphed into a set of mystical beliefs in the power of thought to affect the material world beyond the self”

“Elements of New Thought have recently seeped into strategic thinking through literature on leadership and vision”

Excerpt From: Rumelt, Richard. “Good Strategy/Bad Strategy”. Apple Books.

also, confirmation bias from Fooled by Randomness, who has made money feels optimist until maybe they blow, maybe they don’t.

Blitzscaling Hero or Lockean Titan, whatever

“Being a successful Lockean Titan is like being the successful staph bacterium that manages to find its way into a break in its host’s skin and spawn an infection: yes, you had all the characteristics necessary to go viral (ahem), but you also got lucky by being in the right place at the right time, and if you hadn’t been there, someone else would have been.”

Thanks Doctorow, great writers are there to give voice to your thoughts, I had been looking for an image like this to describe innovation in the age of the unicorns, and why geography matters, and what is the real role of the hero in a world well set by technology and finance

Cory Doctorow: Terra Nullius

Less money, more success, to be confirmed

“The fact is that the amount of money startups raise in their seed and Series A rounds is inversely correlated with success. Yes, I mean that. Less money raised leads to more success. That is the data I stare at all the time. It makes little sense at face value but it is true based on more than two decades of experience in the startup world.”

Fred Wilson “Maximizing runaway can minimize success”

Fred has the data, 20 years of it, in front of him but I can’t find it, duh