finance

words and acronyms

spread, like spread the virus, spred Bund-BTP, spread the goodness of the web GNUtella. Just because I want to talk about Fold@home that reminds me of SETI@home that was alive at the time DIvX Napster and Indymedia were born (GNUtella followed suit, once Napster was killed)

PEEP and PEPP, easy to confuse, both actual now:

PEEP some parameter in ventilators, the reason you can’t hack together a mechanichal ventilator, PEEP must be managed by some electronics and specific mechanics

PEPP is some Pandemic Emergency something  created by the ECB, which will buy bods for 750 billions, it already started buying Italy’s Btp and that should allow Italy to stay comfortably in 5% deficit for 2020, BOTs have already a buyr, Over that level,  check twice

Farmer’s fable (ergodicity economics)

sharing is actually maximizing profit https://www.farmersfable.org/ a cartoon that show how sharing to reduce fluctuation leave both parties better off (on a random walk)

Screenshot 2020-02-13 at 15.44.36

 

Homo Ergodicus https://glandfried.github.io/post/homoergodicus/

“Multiplicative process offers a concrete physical advantage in favor of cooperative behavior”

Also, Warren Buffet’s 3 rules in light of ergodicity  (St. Peterburg’s Paradox explained) https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2020/02/warren-buffetts-rules-nr-12-and-3-in.html

Helicopter VC Money

1. some says the stock market has matured, all blue chips company are pretty much well managed, so it does not really matter picking the right one, so passive investing

2. But some other noted that if you take out the value created by a 4% of high-performers the rest of the pubblic companies just thred water, so pick thos 4% and grow rich. So pick the google and facebook early. Buy a crystal ball

3. Or just get into any seed round you can, because someone says this is the best way to gt into those winners

1. would Maubouissin in this paper The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks

2. would be The best-performing four percent of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills

3. is Angel List If you miss the best-performing seed investment, you will eventually be outperformed by someone who blindly invests in every credible deal.

 

Asset valuation? Really?

hope it is not lost on you the humour of an investment banker, not any one, the CEO of Goldman Sachs who claims assets cannot be valued,of all assets, houses https://twitter.com/thomaskaplan/status/1196844704916287494

Screenshot 2019-11-21 at 09.37.36.png

This argument has some merit, for example Goldman Sachs at some point valued WeWork at 47 billion, that point was right before selling it to investors in the IPO, the investors balked nd WeWork was refinanced by its current owner, Softbank at 8 Bln valuation https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/21/report-softbank-is-taking-control-of-wework-at-an-8b-valuation/

“The global market for private equity, including venture capital, has swelled fivefold in the past two decades to $4.2tn,” says the FT—they become increasingly dominated by more public-style investors who don’t have that discernment.  Matt Levine in newsletter