Managerial concept I missed

the whale ! Customer Profitability Whale Curve https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/CustomerProfitabilityWithTheWhaleCurve/ (found on the Management Myth

Cash Conversion Cycle (negative for Apple) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashconversioncycle.asp#:~:text=The%20cash%20conversion%20cycle%20(CCC)%20is%20a%20metric%20that%20expresses,into%20cash%20flows%20from%20sales.

Apple, Windows, strategy and product development

Steve Sinofsky, lead at MS dev team for Apple software, knows both worlds well

https://medium.learningbyshipping.com/apples-relentless-strategy-and-execution-7544a76aa26

commenting on Apple switch to own silicon in Macs, toos 2 years, it is at once a short time for such a deep change affecting the entire product ecosystem, very long one if you think indeed you are committing an entire ecosystem to it and for 2 years you keep going whatever will happen

“16/ To execute requires everything in the company to operate as though strategy matters most. It means communication. Performance reviews and rewards. It means management top down reinforces it and isn’t “random” or “inconsistent”. That is so difficult internally. Painful even.”

15/ It is incredibly clear that everyone at Apple puts strategy requirements above anything “local”. When you wonder why there isn’t more new in Notes or why Mail is missing stuff it’s because supporting a multi-year strategy trumps individual teams and that’s a good thing.

Covd-19 winners and losers (tech)

Artificial intelligence definitely loser, phisicians were faster to retrain than  neural networks, even in imaging AI was a pain in the ass trying to solve problems that did not exist while not properly trained

Blockchain big loser, tracing app need to track individual contacts in full respect of privacy, with decentralized protocols. Blockchain to the rescue ? Nah, Google and Apple provided it for Android and iPhone

3d Printing not the general technology people hoped for few years back but oncle an ICU runs out of cheap ventilator valves and the producer isn’t quick to restock, a bunch of hackers save live3d printing hackers save lives, and that happened all over the world

Genetics Moderna messenger RNA vaccine has started human trial first, ahead of all other vaccines developed with more traditional technologies. Let’s whether the mRNA approach works and genetics makes the difference in this crisis

Moats, gross margins and strategy sounding fluff

Moats Before (Gross) Margins

so you got to have gross margins, fat gross margins. But you end up doing only software

but you know Apple has not SW margins but it is a good company.

Gotta have moats moats moats, baby

so what are htese moats? Founders feeling the crisp air of the morning while standing on top of the tower and look beyond their moats. The fascination of military metaphors that is strategy 🙂

BTW of course a fixation on gross margin is ok if you have to win the startup race on the internet, everyone will have a go at the next tool, platform, aggregaotor and we know the rules of competition there. But then strategy does not stop there

Moats are just a beautiful, inspiring image

Confirmation bias and New Thought

“By 1890, this stream of religious philosophy had morphed into a set of mystical beliefs in the power of thought to affect the material world beyond the self”

“Elements of New Thought have recently seeped into strategic thinking through literature on leadership and vision”

Excerpt From: Rumelt, Richard. “Good Strategy/Bad Strategy”. Apple Books.

also, confirmation bias from Fooled by Randomness, who has made money feels optimist until maybe they blow, maybe they don’t.

Helicopter VC Money

1. some says the stock market has matured, all blue chips company are pretty much well managed, so it does not really matter picking the right one, so passive investing

2. But some other noted that if you take out the value created by a 4% of high-performers the rest of the pubblic companies just thred water, so pick thos 4% and grow rich. So pick the google and facebook early. Buy a crystal ball

3. Or just get into any seed round you can, because someone says this is the best way to gt into those winners

1. would Maubouissin in this paper The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks

2. would be The best-performing four percent of listed companies explain the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills

3. is Angel List If you miss the best-performing seed investment, you will eventually be outperformed by someone who blindly invests in every credible deal.

 

Warren Buffet & Zeno Cosini

Moats & Trenches

“Voleva sapere che cosa c’entrassimo noi in quell’articolo e supponeva fossimo mandatarii di potenti concorrenti esteri. La prima volta era sconvolto e temeva il peggio. Quando indovinò la nostra ingenuità, ci rise in faccia e ci assicurò che non saremmo riusciti a nulla. Finì ch’ebbe ragione, ma prima che ci acconciassimo alla condanna durò non poco tempo e da Carmen furono scritte non poche lettere. Trovammo che l’articolo era irraggiungibile perché circondato da trincee.”  La Coscienza di Zeno, Italo Svevo

Screenshot 2019-11-20 at 19.52.42

“The most important thing [is] trying to find a business with a wide and long-lasting moat around it … protecting a terrific economic castle with an honest lord in charge of the castle,” Warren Buffet

Ancora nella Coscienza di Zeno: cut the loss soon let the profits run

“Curioso come a questo mondo vi sia poca gente che si rassegni a perdite piccole; son le grandi che inducono immediatamente alla grande rassegnazione.”