Urchin forecast of 2020 instability

based on “structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness”

formulated here in 2010 https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

the science behind explained here http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-science-behind-my-forecast-for-2020/

Yhe Structural-demographic model components from here https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6qp8x28p

Screenshot 2020-07-01 at 22.19.44

I just realized I bought Urchin’s book Ultrasociety already maybe 5 years https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27867828-ultrasociety

right handed cosmic shower and DNA


“A man is at the doctor’s office, and the doctor tells him, “I’ve got some good news and some bad news for you.” The man says, “Well, I can’t take the bad news right now, so give me the good news first.”

/ The doctor says, “Well, the good news is that you have an 18-inch penis.”

The man looks stunned for a moment, and then asks, “What’s the bad news?”

/ The doctor says, “Your brain’s in your dick”

Dick joke? anzi Doctor & dick joke su Linkedin, perchè?

Se ti ha fatto ridere pensa che è stato generato da GPT-3, il modello di generazione di testo sviluppato da OpenAI, successore del molto pubblicizzato GPT-2 rispetto al quale mostra 117x dimensioni: 115 miliardi di parametri

la curva di aumento dei parametri dei modelli segue ancora una power curve, su un sentiero di crescita esponenziale

con l’aumento della dimensione migliorano anche il meta apprendimento e la stabilità, la scala è ancora una strategia vincente per la performance dei modelli di neural networks

GPT-3 riesce a creare testi soprendenti a partire da una travccia e anche a inventare batturte. Diciamo però che non c’ corrispondenza tra testo e realtà nel modello, GPT-3 è un idiota saggio, ma molto saggio. questo lo leggete da Gwern

Alla prova anhche con la matematica e gli scacchi riesce ad avere prestazione decente, questo potreste leggerlo da Scoot Alòexander di Slate Star Codex, blog e comunità neorazionalista, best blog in town. Solo che il New Yourk Times minaccia di pubblicare il vero nome del blogger, esponendolo a danno professioanle e pericolo e allora Scott ha messo offline il suto

che mondo, AI fanno dick jokes a giornali fanno doxxing

Incestuous god kings of 5,000 years ago

folk memory was recroded inAD 1,000, and today confrimed by genetic analysis on a 5,000 old tumb



Randomized trials and twitter

this is a lot #meta and also a but #GAC (italian, unnervingly obvious)

112 papers were randomly chosen to be shared on twitter by a group with ~58k followers or to not be shared. Papers that were tweeted accumulated 4x more citations compared to non-tweeted papers over 1yr.

Meta you know, a randomised trial of paper surely describing randomised experiments

GAC because it’s the network baby, read Barabasi’s link e you know that if you look for a job and tell family and frineds you get nothing, but if tell people outside your usual creche you will find. So tell a 58,000-strong Twitter group.

Barabasi went on writing precisely a book to explain the infallible formula of success, the book is titled

The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success

C’ un tenente drogo in viaggio verso le retrovie ora

gli indiani hanno costruito la strada

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 14.07.33

verso una valle inospitale, un deserto dei tartari

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 14.08.05

dove scorre il Galwan, incerto confine tra India e Cina https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galwan_River

negli ultimi tempi, ammasso di trupper al confine, schermaglie a pietrate perch un trattato vieta di sparare https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/20/india-china-border-brawl-superpowers-throw-stones-tensions-heighten/

fino a oggi, 20 indiani morti, a pietrate e mani nude ? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53073338

Il Deserto dei Tartari un capolavoro che vive al di fuori del tempo

UPDATE e questo deve essere l’inizio della terza guerra mondiale combattuta come prevedeva Einstein https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53089037

Screenshot 2020-06-18 at 14.51.45

Cheap inputs and tech epochs

from Carlota Perez “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.23.56

4th epoch is cheap oil, 5th is cheap bits. 6th?

If it has to be Green then it has to be renewables energies, cheap renewables?

cheap and abundant, the two things are tied in learning curves. Ramez Naam is working the Pareto curves himself.

Solar Future in Insanely Cheap

But a planet on renewables would require a lot of solar and wind, for example this report on reaching 90% renewables in the US calls for doubling new installation every year in the 20s and trebling in the thirtiesScreenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.55.17

Report 2035 di Goldman Sachs and U. Berkeley.

Conk and Zoot Suite


“The conk (derived from congolene, a hair straightener gel made from lye) was a hairstyle popular among African-American men from the 1920s to the 1960s.[1] This hairstyle called for a man with naturally “kinky” hair to have it chemically straightened using a relaxer (sometimes the pure corrosive chemical lye)”


Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 10.39.32

Zoot Suit Riot in 1943 because zoot suits were considered unpatriotic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_Suit_Riots

Forecasting with fat tailed distro

Random variables in the power law class with tail exponent α ≤ 1 are, simply, not forecastable. They do not obey the LLN. But we can still understand their properties.”

“If one claims fitness or nonfitness of a forecasting ability based on a single observation = 1, she or he would be deemed to be making an unscientific claim. For fat tailed variables that “= 1″ error can be made with n = 106. In the case of pandemics, n = ∞ is still anecdotal. (..) It takes 1014 observations for a “Pareto 80/20” (the most commonly referred to probability distribution, that is withα ≈ 1.13) for the average thus obtained to emulate the significance of a Gaussian with only 30 observations.”


Taleb justifying the precautionary principle on statistcis ground, in a challenge with Ioannidis who called for reopening the economy based on poor data