from Carlota Perez “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”
4th epoch is cheap oil, 5th is cheap bits. 6th?
If it has to be Green then it has to be renewables energies, cheap renewables?
cheap and abundant, the two things are tied in learning curves. Ramez Naam is working the Pareto curves himself.
Solar Future in Insanely Cheap
But a planet on renewables would require a lot of solar and wind, for example this report on reaching 90% renewables in the US calls for doubling new installation every year in the 20s and trebling in the thirties
Report 2035 di Goldman Sachs and U. Berkeley.
“What Covid-19 teaches is that it is not just the big picture that matters. So tightly knit is our global system that small failures of governance in a few crucial nodes can affect everyone on the planet.”
“On the one hand are the huge medical risks; on the other is a disastrous economic crisis. How can we make the trade-off? It is tempting to reject the choice as impossible or false. Not only is that not true, it also denies the fact that, under normal circumstances, we routinely engage in life and death trade-offs. Even in the most affluent societies, financially motivated decisions are made every day that decide the chances of death due to workplace accidents, pollution, car crashes, hospital funding, drug procurement and health insurance.”
Chris Sacca the legendary early investor of Uber, Twitter, Instagram, Stripe, Kickstarter claims he no lo ger investing in tech, he will invest only in envirnment, democracy and justice
Ramez Namm is a former Microsoft whio gained fame as a science fiction writer. He is a staunch bliever that clean technology has legs to run on its own. He tours the world, lecturing fund managers on how they should invest for money not for morals
“without models, there are no data. I’m not talking about the difference between “raw” and “cooked” data. I mean this literally. Today, no collection of signals or observations—even from satellites, which can “see” the whole planet—becomes global in time and space without first passing through a series of data models.”
“Paul N. Edwards – A Vast Machine_ Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming”
” A reanalysis project involves reprocessing observational data spanning an extended historical period using a consistent modern analysis system, to produce a dataset that can be used for meteorological and climatological studies.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_reanalysis
“You have probably heard the common deniers’ complaint that climate scientists adapt models when new data comes in. That is supposedly unscientific because, here it comes (..) But the deniers’ argument merely demonstrates they know even less about scientific methodology than particle physicists. Revising a hypothesis when new data comes in is perfectly fine. In fact, it is what you expect good scientists to do.”
paper here , charts from the paper:
Acronym to remember
Funds flowing into ESG funds
but WSJ reports that 8 of 10 have investemnts in things like Exxon Mobil, as sustainable as it gets fi you want, as Blackrock does, offer same risk and return that in the broad market.
Money is surely not where the mouth is, as some point the giration might be more violent than expected
where solar and wind are cheapest generation, paywall https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/
Hydrogen elctrolysis can be economic efficient in a scenario of abundant renewables generation and carbon tax. Froma tweetstorm, full of useful charts https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1176451011600441344.html
Frenzen on New Yorker, buon apocalisse, find me tending kale and strawberries in my bio urban garden https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending
Are we doomed? Analysis on NYTimes https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/science/climate-change-doom.html
The IPCC report og 1,5 degree global warming https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/