Cheap inputs and tech epochs

from Carlota Perez “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.23.56

4th epoch is cheap oil, 5th is cheap bits. 6th?

If it has to be Green then it has to be renewables energies, cheap renewables?

cheap and abundant, the two things are tied in learning curves. Ramez Naam is working the Pareto curves himself.

Solar Future in Insanely Cheap

But a planet on renewables would require a lot of solar and wind, for example this report on reaching 90% renewables in the US calls for doubling new installation every year in the 20s and trebling in the thirtiesScreenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.55.17

Report 2035 di Goldman Sachs and U. Berkeley.

technologists for the environment

Chris Sacca the legendary early investor of Uber, Twitter, Instagram, Stripe, Kickstarter claims he no lo ger investing in tech, he will invest only in envirnment, democracy and justice

Screenshot 2020-03-02 at 15.26.18

Ramez Namm is a former Microsoft whio gained fame as a science fiction writer. He is a staunch bliever that clean technology has legs to run on its own. He tours the world, lecturing fund managers on how they should invest for money not for morals

Screenshot 2020-03-02 at 15.30.57

brick inflation vs. green inflation

Screenshot 2020-02-05 at 14.24.57

Central banks have a problem, they can’t create inflation. ECB is the worst plagued by that.

So the Chief Economist Lane suggests to add real estate costs to CPI and pump up inflation accordingly, real estate markets are in a bull run Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, has been even more specific. “We at the ECB would agree that there should be more weight on housing,” Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/why-your-housing-costs-matter-to-christine-lagarde-and-the-ecb Copyright © BloombergQuint

ECB Chief Lagarde does not mention inflation at all but only green. Decarbonization would be a great way to add some inflation to the system

A carbon tax is more or less an oil shock where the surplus stay in the domestic economic rather than flying to Saudi Arabia. Carbon tax would make great financial sense if the target is higher inflation (of course it will shock the economy, reallocate resources among economic sectors, offer various option on how to redistribute the increased taxes imagine a carbon dividend for example) So a green oil shock would serve many purposes and open up many dimensions of public policy

Green QE story https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/12/17/1576593138000/Green-QE-is-about-more-than-buying-climate-friendly-bonds/

 

Hydrogen post

Hydrogen elctrolysis can be economic efficient in a scenario of abundant renewables generation and carbon tax. Froma tweetstorm, full of useful charts https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1176451011600441344.html

Blue Hydrogen is the cheapest option to decarbonise heavy industries. Green hydrogen more stringent on electricity cost and/or hydrolysis learning curve https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/low-carbon-heat-solutions-heavy-industry-sources-options-and-costs-today

Report IEA “The future of Hydrogen” https://www.snam.it/it/hydrogen_challenge/report_iea/

Report SNAM-McKinsey “THE HYDROGEN CHALLENGE: The potential of hydrogen in Italy” https://www.snam.it/it/hydrogen_challenge/studio_mckinsey/”

Eurelectric Decarbonisation Pathways https://www.eurelectric.org/decarbonisation-pathways/

energy, follow the money

Screenshot 2019-06-12 at 11.26.03US dominance in oil makes impossible to reduce emissions and meet green targets

new shale oil developments will eat all of USA allowances of carbon emissions under Paris Agreement

1,9 trillion from banks to fossil fules in USA since Paris in 2016

only 1,3% of investments to renewables by oil majors

thanks to Adam Tooze, links to specific tweets:

based on reports from:

Rainforest Action Network https://www.ran.org/bankingonclimatechange2019/#data-panel

PriceofOil.org http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2019/01/Drilling-Towards-Disaster-Web-v3.pdf

(will all these links survive of be lost as tears in the rain ? Should I screenshots like there is no (internet) tomorrow?)

here’s the screens 🙂

Waste the photovoltaic cell

“In its first decades, the oil business provided an industrializing world with a product called by the made-up name of “kerosene” and known as the “new light,” which pushed back the night and extended the working day. At the end of the nineteenth century, John D. Rockefeller had become the richest man in the United States, mostly from the sale of kerosene. Gasoline was then only an almost useless by-product, which sometimes managed to be sold for as much as two cents a gallon, and, when it could not be sold at all, was run out into rivers at night. But just as the invention of the incandescent light bulb seemed to signal the obsolescence of the oil industry, a new era opened with the development of the internal combustion engine powered by gasoline.”

Excerpt From: Yergin, Daniel. “The Prize”. Apple Books.

From the 2008 preface. The idea that a revolution will happen only once PV energy will be priced so low that it will be sold cheap, dispersed into ground, wasted. Before new application will be found and revolutionise the world (hydrogen? what else?)

Comes to me from reading Gilder and Telecosm, this quote found on wired by googleing “waste the bandwidth” the tagline of Gilder’s book that stuck to me:

“You had to “waste” the power of the steam engine and its derivatives in order to prevail, whether in war or in peace. Over the last 30 years, we’ve seen transistors (or switching power) move from being expensive, crafted vacuum tubes to being virtually free. So today, the prime rule of thrift in business is “waste transistors.” We “waste” them to correct our spelling, to play solitaire, to do anything. As a matter of fact, you’ve got to waste transistors in order to succeed in business these days.

My thesis is that bandwidth is going to be virtually free in the next era in the same way that transistors are in this era. “

Now it’s paywall, should i link it ? Ok I ll link it https://www.wired.com/1993/04/gilder-4/