SF and technology lifecycle

” I have a theory about why the cyberpunks and the early industrial sci-fi writers got it so right. When new general purpose technologies (engines, electricity, computers, the internet) are emerging, it’s easy for speculative fiction writers to imagine a lot of things you could do with the new technologies. But then when writers observe continuous improvement of existing technologies — Moore’s Law, more powerful engines, etc. — they tend to project it out too far, and wind up writing about fantastic super-technologies that don’t end up getting invented for a very long time. That’s why early industrial sci-fi gave way to space opera, and cyberpunk gave way to Singularity sci-fi about artificial general intelligence, personality upload, and so on.2

that was Noah Smith and the theory is here http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/what-we-didnt-get.html

the quote i s taken from is substack here https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/cyberpunk-came-true-so-whats-next

the net generation will call them …

Gamestoppers they are the ones who face reality with the POV of a shooter, don’t move without the company of the posse met on the shittiest server of that box game, nothing moves them more than defending a meme or trope o childhood memory

you are trying to get rich not working and check on reddit7stockpicks, you see your beloved childhood brand being destroyed by a short seller, I mean tha place where you would swap used disks and get rebates on your old console. How dare they?

you shortsquezze them with your reddit buddies and of course, 19th century sotckmarket meets a videogame mob of last generation, who wins?

so you deserve to be the gamestopper, I am sure that bodes well for the future, your older brothers complain that boomers fucked the planet for them, you will stop their games, WTF it is videogame mob of last generation against thos 20th century types. And the fund they call them Citron, losers

and because it is cool now in tech world to quote the most ridicuolous book of the last century, Fukuyama end of history, I quote it, this is the hyperthymic generatiopn, google the term and you know what to expect

maybe you want to read the facts not the rant https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-22/gamestop-tug-of-war-gives-reddit-army-a-win-on-record-volatility

IPO’s cluster bomb model

I don’t know wether the cluster bomb model is appropriate, maybe a better analogy is the virus shedding, so IPO’s would be shedding capital in the economy, infectious innovation model

in Europe this does not happen and indeed the startup scene in Europe is sort of depressing, let alone Italy where it dead

while in Israle the model worked perfectly, Waze IPO shed seed capital which sprouted in 50 unicorns less than 10 years later https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3884893,00.html

going back to Branko Milanovic homoploutis, which he found increasing in the US, will it increase in the same way in Europe? The startup capital shedding model seems a big contributo though he does not mention it in his book, in his paper it is ecluded from the data but claerly reinforces the trend http://www.lisdatacenter.org/wps/liswps/806.pdf

Shortcuts

oggi si insedia Biden, contro tutte le attese. Trump era il favorito ma sta lasciando la casa bianca. la causa, interamente la disumana risposta di trump alla crisi del covid.

Il Covid, uno “shortcut” al successo elettorale, dicui si è avvataggiato biden. shortcut come nella terminologia dei videogames

“passaggi/livelli tortuosi che apparentemente non servono a niente, solo a mettere in difficoltà il giocatore e, forse sulla via, aumentare la sua esperienza.Spesso alla fine di questi “livelli” c’è un porta o un accesso che avvicina due luoghi altrimenti lontani. Si trovano frequentemente presso siti di grande difficoltà per il giocatore, ad esempio alle porte di una stanza del boss.” 8hochiesto ammiofiglo9

Insomma lo shortcut alla Presidenza lo ha preso Biden. Ma il Covid ha anche offerto uno shortcut al successo economico

.Il successo economico, un tema così complesso e dibatutto che a più di 2 secoli dal primo libro di economia “ever”, quello di Adam Smith  “The Wealth of Nations” ancora non c’è un ricetta sicura vrso la ricchezza delle nazioni

Ma in pandemia Covid la ricetta c’era, test6trace, distanziamento, soppressione del virus mantenendo l’conomia apertail più a lungo possibile. Loshortcut al successo economico l’hanno preso la Cina e il Vietnam, con metodi e gradazioni diversi anche altri paesi

Non l’Italia, moratlità e calo del pil tra i peggiori, l’economia italiana di nuovo buttata indietro di un decennio. oggi conte, forte de unamaggioranza relativa al senato,insediail suo terzo mandato,o si considera ancora il conte 2′. ancora una volta una occasione mancata, una riprova della crisi di un paese di un sistema, a tutti i livelli, politica, amministrazione pubblica, società civile,laddove invece poteva diventare una più 2facile2 occasione di riscatto, unoshortcut al successo.

GPT-3 links

and some renewed interest in Transformers

Gwern https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3

HN comments where iI found the link https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23623845

some intuition on relation between Graph and Transformer architecture https://graphdeeplearning.github.io/post/transformers-are-gnns/

I should find a good intro to transformer, it seems that they scale the right way, even bigger models with ever better performances, like size drives performance.

shareholder value

investigating the mantra of management a cavallo of the last 2 centuries

it all started with this paper in 1976 Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure

which welcomes the thesis expressed by Milton Friedman in 1970 in The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits

(originally published in NYTimes https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html)

It was 50 years from the day Friedman’s paper was published last september 2020, it took some time but by the early 80’s shareholder value took hold in the the corporate world, fuelled a rally in stocks and became one with the Reagan era

I started from here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/business/dealbook/milton-friedman-doctrine-social-responsibility-of-business.html

and here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/business/dealbook/milton-friedman-free-markets.html

Libertarian orthodoxy

is guarded by Tyler Cowen

Say you trade crypto, eat paleo, do not wear masks because you are libertarian, be awre that Milton Friedman once said “significant neighborhood effects justify substantial public health activities: maintaining the purity of water, assuring proper sewage disposal, controlling contagious diseases”. Don’t be a bad neighbour, you can be at once libertarian and a good neighbour, wear your mask. More insights from Tyler:

The ideological shift of the libertarian movement on pandemics

Twitter kicked out Trump and maybe you think this is ahgainst freespeech, let’s not get into the specific matter, Tyler remarks that “Robert Nozick called for an archipelago of polities, each autonomously setting their own rules. Isn’t Twitter’s action quite consistent with this vision? Is the optimal libertarian equilibrium really one that adds centralized government regulation of tech platform speech codes?” More questions here:

Should Twitter have banned Trump?

taleb chips in on a read Hayek remark https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1351044387111890948