Managerial concept I missed

the whale ! Customer Profitability Whale Curve https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/CustomerProfitabilityWithTheWhaleCurve/ (found on the Management Myth

Cash Conversion Cycle (negative for Apple) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashconversioncycle.asp#:~:text=The%20cash%20conversion%20cycle%20(CCC)%20is%20a%20metric%20that%20expresses,into%20cash%20flows%20from%20sales.

New Cold War

TikTok wars, the tech perspective https://stratechery.com/2020/the-tiktok-war/

the political eye, a former S’pore Prime Minister https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3091343/china-and-us-new-cold-war-or-not-new-cold-war

funny how the technologist can go fully ideological in its conclusion while the politician sees ample rooms for continuing relations, not really a cold war, wrong metaphors shan’t be used because they might be self-fulfilling

curves, innovation curves of all sorts

Gartner Hype cycle

jazzed up version of traditional Everett Rogers’ diffusion of innovations

this was the trigger https://twitter.com/NickPinkston/status/1278353201905823745

and this is Carlota Perez curve which puts together technology and finance in a play of coupling and decoupling in the installation and deployment phases

carlota perez cycle

I guess it owes something to Kondratiev, that originally was a theory of cycles in commodity prices over long periods (like 60-80 years)

and I wonder the relationships with Urchin Secular cycles more of 2 to 3 centuries due to demographic factors https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bPH2az479gzxDMbf/book-review-ages-of-discord

Screenshot 2020-07-16 at 14.48.10

 

invention and implementation

are different, it’s like having an idea and selling it

Greeks had a steam engine, more a steam turbine, aelopyle. The stem engine arrived in 18th century England

Actually it wasn’t only the steam to do the work, the steam created the void and the air did the work in the Newcomen engine. And it was at some point economical only because coal mines flooded and so there was a lot of coal with non shipping costs.

The sumerian had the wheel, but only for toys. Maybe the economnics ewasn’t right. The middle east forgot the wheel in the middle age because four camels could be run by a man instead of a single chariot. The economics.

so, things look at us waiting to be discovered, we had gotten to the moon and still had not put wheels to luggages, implementation can be harder than invention

distilled of a chapter in Antifragile by Taleb and Anton Howes newsletter “Age of Invention: The Weight of Air” of July 3, 2020

sanità italiana e robustezza

la robustezza della sanità italiana di fronte al Covid-19:

ogni medico è un dirigente, immaginatevi la micorconflittualità

ogni reparto regna sovrano nella propria specialità, la collaborzione con altri reparti è optional

ogni opedale è indipendente nella gestione della propria risposta

il potere è parcellizzato al massimo e distribuito ai margini, dando la massima flessibilità di risposta

all’altro estremo 100mila medici si sono ritrovati in un gruppo Facebook a discutere di casi, terapie, problemi professionali di ogni tipo

Una magnifica strategia bimodale della gestione della risposta all’epidemia. A un estremo le decisioni prese sul campo, all’altro le decisione discusse nel forum più ampio, oltre il 40% dei medici

In mezzo, cosa ha fatto Speranza ? Gallera lo sappiamo, grazie ISS, belle infografiche, ma la lotta all0’epidemia l’hanno fatta i medici negli iospedali e l’hanno discusso su facebook, non nelle stanze dei ministeri, delle regioni, degli istituti superiori

 

 

Apple, Windows, strategy and product development

Steve Sinofsky, lead at MS dev team for Apple software, knows both worlds well

https://medium.learningbyshipping.com/apples-relentless-strategy-and-execution-7544a76aa26

commenting on Apple switch to own silicon in Macs, toos 2 years, it is at once a short time for such a deep change affecting the entire product ecosystem, very long one if you think indeed you are committing an entire ecosystem to it and for 2 years you keep going whatever will happen

“16/ To execute requires everything in the company to operate as though strategy matters most. It means communication. Performance reviews and rewards. It means management top down reinforces it and isn’t “random” or “inconsistent”. That is so difficult internally. Painful even.”

15/ It is incredibly clear that everyone at Apple puts strategy requirements above anything “local”. When you wonder why there isn’t more new in Notes or why Mail is missing stuff it’s because supporting a multi-year strategy trumps individual teams and that’s a good thing.

Urchin forecast of 2020 instability

based on “structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness”

formulated here in 2010 https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

the science behind explained here http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-science-behind-my-forecast-for-2020/

Yhe Structural-demographic model components from here https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6qp8x28p

Screenshot 2020-07-01 at 22.19.44

I just realized I bought Urchin’s book Ultrasociety already maybe 5 years https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27867828-ultrasociety

the new book “Secular Cycles” reviewd by Scott Alexander https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bPH2az479gzxDMbf/book-review-ages-of-discord

“A man is at the doctor’s office, and the doctor tells him, “I’ve got some good news and some bad news for you.” The man says, “Well, I can’t take the bad news right now, so give me the good news first.”

/ The doctor says, “Well, the good news is that you have an 18-inch penis.”

The man looks stunned for a moment, and then asks, “What’s the bad news?”

/ The doctor says, “Your brain’s in your dick”

Dick joke? anzi Doctor & dick joke su Linkedin, perchè?

Se ti ha fatto ridere pensa che è stato generato da GPT-3, il modello di generazione di testo sviluppato da OpenAI, successore del molto pubblicizzato GPT-2 rispetto al quale mostra 117x dimensioni: 115 miliardi di parametri

la curva di aumento dei parametri dei modelli segue ancora una power curve, su un sentiero di crescita esponenziale

con l’aumento della dimensione migliorano anche il meta apprendimento e la stabilità, la scala è ancora una strategia vincente per la performance dei modelli di neural networks

GPT-3 riesce a creare testi soprendenti a partire da una travccia e anche a inventare batturte. Diciamo però che non c’ corrispondenza tra testo e realtà nel modello, GPT-3 è un idiota saggio, ma molto saggio. questo lo leggete da Gwern

Alla prova anhche con la matematica e gli scacchi riesce ad avere prestazione decente, questo potreste leggerlo da Scoot Alòexander di Slate Star Codex, blog e comunità neorazionalista, best blog in town. Solo che il New Yourk Times minaccia di pubblicare il vero nome del blogger, esponendolo a danno professioanle e pericolo e allora Scott ha messo offline il suto

che mondo, AI fanno dick jokes a giornali fanno doxxing

Incestuous god kings of 5,000 years ago

folk memory was recroded inAD 1,000, and today confrimed by genetic analysis on a 5,000 old tumb

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53059527