Software is eating the world

Tech companies are eating out all profits. In Europe health instead software, and tech is the new oil, barely

more goodies in this 3d, ripoff of bank research https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1273967030979493888

also found this, dominant sector in economic ages, we are oil/tech overlapping with some finance domination on it

Screenshot 2020-06-22 at 16.06.57

Randomized trials and twitter

this is a lot #meta and also a but #GAC (italian, unnervingly obvious)

112 papers were randomly chosen to be shared on twitter by a group with ~58k followers or to not be shared. Papers that were tweeted accumulated 4x more citations compared to non-tweeted papers over 1yr.

Meta you know, a randomised trial of paper surely describing randomised experiments

GAC because it’s the network baby, read Barabasi’s link e you know that if you look for a job and tell family and frineds you get nothing, but if tell people outside your usual creche you will find. So tell a 58,000-strong Twitter group.

Barabasi went on writing precisely a book to explain the infallible formula of success, the book is titled

The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success

C’ un tenente drogo in viaggio verso le retrovie ora

gli indiani hanno costruito la strada

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 14.07.33

verso una valle inospitale, un deserto dei tartari

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 14.08.05

dove scorre il Galwan, incerto confine tra India e Cina https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galwan_River

negli ultimi tempi, ammasso di trupper al confine, schermaglie a pietrate perch un trattato vieta di sparare https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/20/india-china-border-brawl-superpowers-throw-stones-tensions-heighten/

fino a oggi, 20 indiani morti, a pietrate e mani nude ? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53073338

Il Deserto dei Tartari un capolavoro che vive al di fuori del tempo

UPDATE e questo deve essere l’inizio della terza guerra mondiale combattuta come prevedeva Einstein https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53089037

Screenshot 2020-06-18 at 14.51.45

Cheap inputs and tech epochs

from Carlota Perez “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.23.56

4th epoch is cheap oil, 5th is cheap bits. 6th?

If it has to be Green then it has to be renewables energies, cheap renewables?

cheap and abundant, the two things are tied in learning curves. Ramez Naam is working the Pareto curves himself.

Solar Future in Insanely Cheap

But a planet on renewables would require a lot of solar and wind, for example this report on reaching 90% renewables in the US calls for doubling new installation every year in the 20s and trebling in the thirtiesScreenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.55.17

Report 2035 di Goldman Sachs and U. Berkeley.

Conk and Zoot Suite

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conk

“The conk (derived from congolene, a hair straightener gel made from lye) was a hairstyle popular among African-American men from the 1920s to the 1960s.[1] This hairstyle called for a man with naturally “kinky” hair to have it chemically straightened using a relaxer (sometimes the pure corrosive chemical lye)”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_suit

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 10.39.32

Zoot Suit Riot in 1943 because zoot suits were considered unpatriotic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_Suit_Riots

Forecasting with fat tailed distro

Random variables in the power law class with tail exponent α ≤ 1 are, simply, not forecastable. They do not obey the LLN. But we can still understand their properties.”

“If one claims fitness or nonfitness of a forecasting ability based on a single observation = 1, she or he would be deemed to be making an unscientific claim. For fat tailed variables that “= 1″ error can be made with n = 106. In the case of pandemics, n = ∞ is still anecdotal. (..) It takes 1014 observations for a “Pareto 80/20” (the most commonly referred to probability distribution, that is withα ≈ 1.13) for the average thus obtained to emulate the significance of a Gaussian with only 30 observations.”

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/on-single-point-forecasts-for-fat-tailed-variables/

Taleb justifying the precautionary principle on statistcis ground, in a challenge with Ioannidis who called for reopening the economy based on poor data

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/

 

Covd-19 winners and losers (tech)

Artificial intelligence definitely loser, phisicians were faster to retrain than  neural networks, even in imaging AI was a pain in the ass trying to solve problems that did not exist while not properly trained

Blockchain big loser, tracing app need to track individual contacts in full respect of privacy, with decentralized protocols. Blockchain to the rescue ? Nah, Google and Apple provided it for Android and iPhone

3d Printing not the general technology people hoped for few years back but oncle an ICU runs out of cheap ventilator valves and the producer isn’t quick to restock, a bunch of hackers save live3d printing hackers save lives, and that happened all over the world

Genetics Moderna messenger RNA vaccine has started human trial first, ahead of all other vaccines developed with more traditional technologies. Let’s whether the mRNA approach works and genetics makes the difference in this crisis

Mind teaser, the birth of the theory of the mind

Slatestarcodex reviews a book https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/01/book-review-origin-of-consciousness-in-the-breakdown-of-the-bicameral-mind/

before a theory of the mind took hold emotions were scattered in the body and inner voices were gods. This can be read in the Iliad, before it was repurposed by editors with a theory of the mind

“Children don’t have theory of mind, at least not very much of it, and more than half of them have imaginary friends. Jaynes has done some research on the imaginary friend phenomenon, and argues that a better term would be “hallucinatory friend”

“For a while in the 80s, psychiatrists were really into multiple personality and tried diagnosing everyone with it, and sure enough all those people would admit to having multiple personalities and it would be very exciting. Then the APA told the psychiatrists to stop, people stopped talking about multiple personality as much, and now the condition is rarer”

“tulpamancy, the idea of cultivating multiple personalities”

“I conclude that giving yourself multiple personalities is actually pretty easy under the right circumstances. Those circumstance are a poor theory of mind (I think borderlines are naturally bad at this) and a cultural context in which having a multiple personality is expected.

Jaynes says ancient people met both criteria”

“Every ancient culture has near-identical concepts of a god who sits inside of you and tells you what to do. The Greeks have their daemons, the Romans their genii, the Egyptians their ka and ba, and the Mesopotamians their iri. The later you go, the more metaphorically people treat these. The earlier you go, the more literal they become”

Moats, gross margins and strategy sounding fluff

Moats Before (Gross) Margins

so you got to have gross margins, fat gross margins. But you end up doing only software

but you know Apple has not SW margins but it is a good company.

Gotta have moats moats moats, baby

so what are htese moats? Founders feeling the crisp air of the morning while standing on top of the tower and look beyond their moats. The fascination of military metaphors that is strategy 🙂

BTW of course a fixation on gross margin is ok if you have to win the startup race on the internet, everyone will have a go at the next tool, platform, aggregaotor and we know the rules of competition there. But then strategy does not stop there

Moats are just a beautiful, inspiring image