current valuation might imply 30 to 50% market share in the future but let’s look at it like a tech and not a car company
sustainable advantage in batteries? It is claimed by Musk, is it real ?
Tesla is an operating system with around a car, car design turned upside down. Will it translate into a sustaiable advantage vs car producers?
Tesla first at autonomous drive with Autopilot, famously claimed in a keynote where Tusk promised your Tesla could work for you as a Taxi while you don’t use it
Imagine Tesla can pack all these unique features in a skateboard other producers can customize with fancy bodies. The skateboard is the operating system in a android-mobile phones analogy
There is a tech story that holds, but theere is also 3 checks to performs, answer the 3 questions, will Tesla really be able to be consistently ahead of all car makers in the world ? In the end, will it be economies of newtok and winner takeall like in software and social networks? Let’s see
an ignorant definition lerts me understand Bayes success in recent times
“Bayes’ core insight of gradually getting closer to the truth by constantly updating in proportion to the weight of the evidence” really lean statistics 🙂
the quote from Tetlock book on Superforecasters, I haven t read it. I neither read Lean startup, I don’t really remeber Bayes Theorem so I might be wrong in putting together things I do not study, but still the quote is suggestive
isomorphic: mapping between 2 structures that preserver the structure and can be reversed.
” as organisms become more and more complex through evolution, they need to model reality with increasing accuracy to stay fit. At all times, their representation of reality must be homomorphic with reality itself. Or in other words, the true structure of our world must be preserved when converted into your brain’s representation of it.”
“Some people think that a simulation can’t be conscious, and only a physical system can, but they got it completely backwards. A physical system cannot be conscious, only a simulation could be conscious.”
from Gwern May newsletter on scaling and metalearning:
“The scaling hypothesis regards the blessings of scale as the secret of AGI: intelligence is ‘just’ simple neural units & learning algorithms applied to diverse experiences at a (currently) unreachable scale.”
parameters scaling in GPT-3 does not run into linear scaling of performance nor dimishing returns. Rather it shows metalearning enhancing the performance
It was forecast by Moraves and since we are in a fat tail phenomenon this holds true: “the scaling hypothesis is so unpopular an idea, and difficult to prove in advance rather than as a fait accompli“. Before GPT-3 another epiphany on the scaling was the google cat moment which started the deep learning craze
Another idea which I like is that models like GPT-3 are definitely cheap and if they show superlinear growth it is a no brainer to go for bigger and more complex models, it is along way before matching the billions of expenses for Cern or nuclear fusion.
Carig Venter synthetic bacteria project cost us 40 milion, ground braking orojects costing so little should not be foregone
BTW to grasp the idea of how there could be a scaling benefit in growing deep learning sizes, go no further that a simple, unfounded but suggestive analogy with Metcalfe law of networks, network value grows with the square of nodes.
1960 the year singularity was cancelled on SSC. History developed mainly in Malthusian trap, with industrialization we got out of the trap and started growing product percapita in an exponential growth. That stopped in the 60’s
German sociologist Beck sensed that capitalism was getting into its second stage, from growth to risk priority. Adam Tooze on Foreign Policy
Assuming that the secular trend was not negated, we are simply in the through of the secular cycles, how long would be this cycle and how high would the upswing carry us ? Check also Turchin and Kondratiev for longer cycles
Turchin Cliodynamics “Cliodynamics is entirely different. Its roots are in nonlinear dynamical systems. We don’t go out looking for cycles; but we don’t shy away from them when there is robust evidence for them. In Structural-Demographic Theory, in particular, oscillations arise because of nonlinear feedbacks between different interacting components of the social system (state-level society).”
with a nice chart:
fuck wordpress and the blocks editor, BTW, when a platform interface becomes baroque for some dynamics clear only to the programmers it’s probabluy time to move, it used to be easy to add an image, no longer