Chad

nel 2000, durante le lezioni che videro l’elezione di Bush, stavo ad Atlanta, avevo un amico di nome Chad e mi faceva ridere il fatto che la contesa sulle elezioni USA fosse sui chad delle schede elettorali in Florida.

Quando Gore concesse lo sentii come una presidenza scippata, ero imbevuto dell’ottimismo degli anni 90 e anche avere il figlio di Bush alla presidenza americana mi dava la netta sensazione di una china pericolosa, la fine di un’epoca. E infatti

Ero ad Atlanta e cercavo di vendere alla CNN la mia idea di internet newsgathering. Non riuscii mai ad incontrare nessuno di CNN, non riuscii ad andare oltre Cartoon Network e a ripensrci, dovevo considerarlo un segno sulla mia prima startup. L’ho fatta lo stesso tornando in Italia, dove ho poco dopo visutto il malanimo politico del g( di genova, poi sono arrivate le torri gemelle e, visto che le impressioni di Atalanta erano giuste.

Nel 2003 fornimmo a FreespeechTV la copertura via web di tutte le manifestazioni europee contro la guerra in Iraq, internet newsgathering era una realtà.

Roger Penrose Nobel

Nobel in Physics for something black holes but I know nothing of Penrose, except I liked very much moravec’s dialogue of Penrose with a robot

https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1994/Penrose.SM.review

Penrose believes that intelligence is not computational, Moravec begged to differ in his own way 🙂

Penrose on intelligence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXgqik6HXc0

of models

yesterday I have to give some advise on Covid and while I was talking I said to myself, “you re not anexpert why would you do that” and I answered to myself that “I ve read thinks from good sources, I have checked facts, I have a model of the pandemia in my mind and I believe it is true”

So I felt the urge to reread something I had read sometimes ago in Douglas Hoftadter Strange Loopes and I went looking for it and was the story on Simmballism, SImms and Careenium the billiard pool with vibrating edges

and yes, this is what I needed to read to feel good about models, my belief do not have to be justified alla the way down to single evidences and experiments

Conk and Zoot Suite

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conk

“The conk (derived from congolene, a hair straightener gel made from lye) was a hairstyle popular among African-American men from the 1920s to the 1960s.[1] This hairstyle called for a man with naturally “kinky” hair to have it chemically straightened using a relaxer (sometimes the pure corrosive chemical lye)”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_suit

Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 10.39.32

Zoot Suit Riot in 1943 because zoot suits were considered unpatriotic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_Suit_Riots

mental habit and DeepL

I have a funny writing habit

when I need to post something in italian I write in English and then translate into english

quando devo scrivere lunghi report di lavoro per i colleghi tedeschi li scrivo in italiano e poi li traduco in inglese

grazie Deepl per aver “materializzato” questo mio mental habit and made it way more efficient

Nuggetized writing (Tooze)

“So sharing has become a key element in my reading, and the trying to figure out what the interesting thing is that I want to share is a very good way of focusing your mind on what the core — I read a piece, so what are the three sentences here I want to cut and paste? Which is the graph that is really telling? And how do I nuggetize that into whatever it is — 280 characters? I found that, at this stage of my life, I know this isn’t necessarily the best way to read complicated philosophy of history, which I also spent a lot of time doing at various points in my career.”

for me it’s 1300 charcter short essay format of Linkedin, pretty much same psychological lever

from the conversation with Tyler Cowen https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/adam-tooze-tyler-cowen-covid-19-economics-46a9b28a2f59

laws, all sort of laws

Bell’S Law new computers bring new industries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell%27s_law_of_computer_classes

Schmidt’s Law[edit]

Dating back to early 1990s and dubbed “Schmidt’s Law” by George Gilder when Schmidt predicted that the network will become the computer.[102][103][104] Schmidt’s Law states: “When the network becomes as fast as the backplane of your computer, the computer hollows out, its components dispersing across the Web, its value migrating to search and sort functions.”[105]

Poe’s law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law you need smiles to tell parody from extreme view ridiculed

The Rashomon effect occurs when an event is given contradictory interpretations by the individuals involved. The effect is named after Akira Kurosawa‘s 1950 film Rashomon, in which a murder is described in four contradictory ways by four witnesses    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashomon_effect

Metcalfe Law of Network: the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). Nive presentation https://a16z.com/2016/03/07/all-about-network-effects/

Kelly Bet of optimal betting size (see post here)

Thomas Theorem “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.”

Benford Law for detecting accounting fraud also know as first-digit law

“Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” – Charles Goodhart  also “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

The Gosplan Phallacy of centralized planning

Peter’s Principle of Promotion and Incompetence tested

Hanlon Razor “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

Matthew Effect – the rich get richer, the poor get poorer

Balk’s Laws 1 to 3, 1 particularly “Everything you hate about the internet is actually everything you hate about the people” https://www.theawl.com/2015/02/my-advice-to-young-people/

Screenshot 2020-01-10 at 09.30.23

Prosecutor Fallacy/ Argument from Rarity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy

In business, there are two ways to make money. You can bundle, or you can unbundle.”
– Jim Barksdale

Conway Law a product mirrors the organization that desinged it, or BEne vans said you can guess from the dashboard wether  “the steering wheel team hates the gear stick team”. Related “Don’t ship the ORG chart” https://medium.com/@donorem/shipping-the-org-chart-3319181be9bd#:~:text=The%20expression%20%E2%80%9CDon’t%20ship,warning%20in%20product%20development%20circles.

Gall’s Law: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system

Adams Substitution Effect

Screenshot 2020-05-05 at 17.39.30

Andy Grover Fallacy that it takes only applying some Moore’s Law magic to the pharma industry to make drug development faster, from a 2007 Newsweek ITW https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2007/11/06/andy_grove_rich_famous_smart_and_wrong

Twyman’s Law: “If a statistic looks interesting or unusual it is probably wrong”

Simpson Paradox “a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined”

Lindy effect the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. The Lindy Lindy Hop effect tells us that Lindy Hop will be danced still in 2075

The Murray Gell-Man amnesia effect can’t be explained briefly but mostly it is not following the old law doctrine “falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus” https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you