Software is eating the world

Tech companies are eating out all profits. In Europe health instead software, and tech is the new oil, barely

more goodies in this 3d, ripoff of bank research https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1273967030979493888

also found this, dominant sector in economic ages, we are oil/tech overlapping with some finance domination on it

Screenshot 2020-06-22 at 16.06.57

Cheap inputs and tech epochs

from Carlota Perez “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”Screenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.23.56

4th epoch is cheap oil, 5th is cheap bits. 6th?

If it has to be Green then it has to be renewables energies, cheap renewables?

cheap and abundant, the two things are tied in learning curves. Ramez Naam is working the Pareto curves himself.

Solar Future in Insanely Cheap

But a planet on renewables would require a lot of solar and wind, for example this report on reaching 90% renewables in the US calls for doubling new installation every year in the 20s and trebling in the thirtiesScreenshot 2020-06-17 at 11.55.17

Report 2035 di Goldman Sachs and U. Berkeley.

Forecasting with fat tailed distro

Random variables in the power law class with tail exponent α ≤ 1 are, simply, not forecastable. They do not obey the LLN. But we can still understand their properties.”

“If one claims fitness or nonfitness of a forecasting ability based on a single observation = 1, she or he would be deemed to be making an unscientific claim. For fat tailed variables that “= 1″ error can be made with n = 106. In the case of pandemics, n = ∞ is still anecdotal. (..) It takes 1014 observations for a “Pareto 80/20” (the most commonly referred to probability distribution, that is withα ≈ 1.13) for the average thus obtained to emulate the significance of a Gaussian with only 30 observations.”

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/on-single-point-forecasts-for-fat-tailed-variables/

Taleb justifying the precautionary principle on statistcis ground, in a challenge with Ioannidis who called for reopening the economy based on poor data

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/

 

Covid Innovation: a lot, not so great

Covid therapies are entering the pipeline at a rate 15 to 80 times faster than any previous epidemic with over 4 new therapies entering the commercial pipeline every single day

The relative share of “short term” solutions – non-vaccines and repurposed drugs – is unusually high. 23 percent of Covid therapies are vaccines, versus at least half for the previous three recent less severe epidemics. Over 60 percent of Covid therapies are repurposed drugs, versus no more than a quarter of those for Ebola, Zika, or H1N1.

the rate at which new vaccines enter the pipeline is essentially the same in February and April!

The increased entry driven by huge payoffs to any successful Covid therapies causes entrants to inefficiently race toward lower-value therapies. If enough small firms begin to race in this way, even the large firms that otherwise would have worked on vaccines will give up. And note that this pattern appears empirically: more severe epidemic leads to more entry by small firms, more work on short-term projects

Farmer’s fable (ergodicity economics)

sharing is actually maximizing profit https://www.farmersfable.org/ a cartoon that show how sharing to reduce fluctuation leave both parties better off (on a random walk)

Screenshot 2020-02-13 at 15.44.36

 

Homo Ergodicus https://glandfried.github.io/post/homoergodicus/

“Multiplicative process offers a concrete physical advantage in favor of cooperative behavior”

Also, Warren Buffet’s 3 rules in light of ergodicity  (St. Peterburg’s Paradox explained) https://sinaas.blogspot.com/2020/02/warren-buffetts-rules-nr-12-and-3-in.html

brick inflation vs. green inflation

Screenshot 2020-02-05 at 14.24.57

Central banks have a problem, they can’t create inflation. ECB is the worst plagued by that.

So the Chief Economist Lane suggests to add real estate costs to CPI and pump up inflation accordingly, real estate markets are in a bull run Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, has been even more specific. “We at the ECB would agree that there should be more weight on housing,” Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/why-your-housing-costs-matter-to-christine-lagarde-and-the-ecb Copyright © BloombergQuint

ECB Chief Lagarde does not mention inflation at all but only green. Decarbonization would be a great way to add some inflation to the system

A carbon tax is more or less an oil shock where the surplus stay in the domestic economic rather than flying to Saudi Arabia. Carbon tax would make great financial sense if the target is higher inflation (of course it will shock the economy, reallocate resources among economic sectors, offer various option on how to redistribute the increased taxes imagine a carbon dividend for example) So a green oil shock would serve many purposes and open up many dimensions of public policy

Green QE story https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/12/17/1576593138000/Green-QE-is-about-more-than-buying-climate-friendly-bonds/