an ignorant definition lerts me understand Bayes success in recent times

“Bayes’ core insight of gradually getting closer to the truth by constantly updating in proportion to the weight of the evidence” really lean statistics 🙂

the quote from Tetlock book on Superforecasters, I haven t read it. I neither read Lean startup, I don’t really remeber Bayes Theorem so I might be wrong in putting together things I do not study, but still the quote is suggestive

It come from here https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq

I did not know arbital, it is in less wrong territory I guess, I am going to study Bayes there

BTW all orginitase here “What relevance does this have for the LW-Yudkowsky-Bayesian rationalist project?” found in this SSC article about metis vs high rationalism. I think it’s all in the zeitgeist https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/16/book-review-seeing-like-a-state/

step back “seeing like a state” recycled as “seeeing like an algorithm” ref TikTok, I think misusued nd rather sinister but here it is Eugene Weiwei https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2020/9/18/seeing-like-an-algorithm