“Random variables in the power law class with tail exponent α ≤ 1 are, simply, not forecastable. They do not obey the LLN. But we can still understand their properties.”
“If one claims fitness or nonfitness of a forecasting ability based on a single observation n = 1, she or he would be deemed to be making an unscientific claim. For fat tailed variables that “n = 1″ error can be made with n = 106. In the case of pandemics, n = ∞ is still anecdotal. (..) It takes 1014 observations for a “Pareto 80/20” (the most commonly referred to probability distribution, that is withα ≈ 1.13) for the average thus obtained to emulate the significance of a Gaussian with only 30 observations.”
https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/on-single-point-forecasts-for-fat-tailed-variables/
Taleb justifying the precautionary principle on statistcis ground, in a challenge with Ioannidis who called for reopening the economy based on poor data
https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/
1500-Pound Goat 