Rna Vaccine production

capex and opex for Rna vaccine depending on dosage of Rna

It comes from this paper https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/1/3/htm

it strikes me that: a 30 L bioreactor could produce a billion doses a year ?

the bottlenecks are not ion the reaction, harder is getting the comonents tyo the reactor. Than the rna gets wraped in fat and filled in vials, For one bioreactor one needs a lot of fill-in line in parallel


Viagra for growth

il Sildenafil è il Viagra, il Taldafil è il Cialis, il Vardenafil è il #meToo col brand meno forte, non ricordo quale

Ash Jogalekar@curiouswavefn chiede “Show me a molecular modeling or machine learning technique that predicts tadalafil (Cialis) from sildenafil (Viagra) without the former being explicitly represented in the training set, purely based on target information. That’s the kind of scaffold hop that will turn heads. “

la biochimica non è tutta così prevedibile, però la performance di Alphafold nel torneo di piegatura delle proteine ha lasciato una grande impressione

Già da un pò si pensa che iniettando un po di tech (leggi software e ML) nella ricerca pharma si può girare la #eroomLaw in #MooreLaw se non ci credete passate da A16z che ha cominciato a usare il termine Bio come buzzword analoga a Tech, tech non è più una abbrevizione di tecnologia, come Bio vuole essere una etichetta breve e riconoscibile di una tesi di investimento nel bioscience https://a16z.com/bio/

Solo che l’eccitazione del successo di Alphafold adesso fa pensare a qualcuno che anche la Great Stagnation possa essere giunta al termine, insomma Alphafold è viagra per gli economisti

Se lo chiede Tyler Cowen che il termine l’ha coniato nel suolibro del 2011. E un po di tech optimism si vede qua e là

senescence in society and organism

you ought to pay respect to elder components of your society, should you also respect older components of your body, senescent cells that spread inflammation and disease ?

Unity enters phase 1 of its molecule that targets and kills senescence cells, senescent cell therapy https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/17/unity-biotechnology-and-senescent-cell-therapy

Nature just published a novel application of CAR-T therapy targeting senescent cells https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2403-9 from A16 https://a16z.com/2020/08/09/slaying-sleeper-cells-aging-car-t/

sanità italiana e robustezza

la robustezza della sanità italiana di fronte al Covid-19:

ogni medico è un dirigente, immaginatevi la micorconflittualità

ogni reparto regna sovrano nella propria specialità, la collaborzione con altri reparti è optional

ogni opedale è indipendente nella gestione della propria risposta

il potere è parcellizzato al massimo e distribuito ai margini, dando la massima flessibilità di risposta

all’altro estremo 100mila medici si sono ritrovati in un gruppo Facebook a discutere di casi, terapie, problemi professionali di ogni tipo

Una magnifica strategia bimodale della gestione della risposta all’epidemia. A un estremo le decisioni prese sul campo, all’altro le decisione discusse nel forum più ampio, oltre il 40% dei medici

In mezzo, cosa ha fatto Speranza ? Gallera lo sappiamo, grazie ISS, belle infografiche, ma la lotta all0’epidemia l’hanno fatta i medici negli iospedali e l’hanno discusso su facebook, non nelle stanze dei ministeri, delle regioni, degli istituti superiori



Covid Innovation: a lot, not so great

Covid therapies are entering the pipeline at a rate 15 to 80 times faster than any previous epidemic with over 4 new therapies entering the commercial pipeline every single day

The relative share of “short term” solutions – non-vaccines and repurposed drugs – is unusually high. 23 percent of Covid therapies are vaccines, versus at least half for the previous three recent less severe epidemics. Over 60 percent of Covid therapies are repurposed drugs, versus no more than a quarter of those for Ebola, Zika, or H1N1.

the rate at which new vaccines enter the pipeline is essentially the same in February and April!

The increased entry driven by huge payoffs to any successful Covid therapies causes entrants to inefficiently race toward lower-value therapies. If enough small firms begin to race in this way, even the large firms that otherwise would have worked on vaccines will give up. And note that this pattern appears empirically: more severe epidemic leads to more entry by small firms, more work on short-term projects

Pessimism and positive thinking

Coronavirus phase 2

pessimism: antibodies not lasting, common cold coronavirus does not generate lasting antibodies, animal coronavirus creates trouble to vaccines https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698979285991424

Positive thinkng, we can make a plan, Broad testing pun intended, Broad lab in Harvard https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/broad-institute-races-to-enable-coronavirus-testing/hacked to make 1 million tampons a day,

Broad Institute races to enable coronavirus testing


Harvard plan to secure USA with tampons would cost 15 billion but actually worth, Roadmap to pandemic resilience https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Propublia 3d on what to do: https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1253351877787467779

common sense considerations by an ex expatriate, no matter you think you re staying 6 months or 6 years make your place comfortable

phase 2 could last 12 months but also longe, a word of caution by Derek lowe. Let’s build up resilience like it could be 12 years, we won’t regret anyhow. WIn win

From Trolley to Mechanical Ventilator

how “problems” change over time, one day everybody is musing on a robot car who (that) must choose who to kill, then a small rna virus arrives and everybody turns to the problem of mechanical ventilators, except that not, nobody wants to acknowledge that in the Covid19 epidemics thousand of critical patients are subject to rationing life/death decisions based of a simple rule or a more complex clinical evalution algorithm? And the dilemma goes: you save a 60-yearld old man in perfect shape of a 35-year old pregnant woman with breast cancer ?

Facing Covid-19 in Italy — Ethics, Logistics, and Therapeutics on the Epidemic’s Front Line

New England Journal of Medicine has a retrospective on the ICU crisis in Italy where decisions around scarce mechanical ventilators are actually done, at time of writing over 4,000 people dead and this charts show the problem in stricking clarity

Death definition in Germany in a plague

(originates from widespread ideas in Italy that when you die of Coronavirus in Germany with comorbidity the death is then attribute to the comorbidity, so they come out better at numbers

info page on case collection at Robert Koch Institute https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

RKI is mandated to keep tabs on  plagues by the Infection Protection Act https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/inf_dis_down.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

The new normal (Covid edition)

How is going to be after we contain the epidemic ?

Pandemics don’t go away with the season, not for good, expect to see a new outbreak in Autumn

This is what this simulation says https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf and it hypothesizes a policy framework like thisScreenshot 2020-03-17 at 21.33.48

suppression strategies to cap ICU cases and preserve public health, awaiting a vaccine 18 months away

This is also what we know from a previous pandemic, the Asian Flu. Not quite a coronavirus but both rhinoviruses, quite as deadly and infectious although the Asian would kill the elder and the little kinds with Covid19 kills only the former.

It had 2 peaks in USA, in September and February and raged for 3 year in total