how “problems” change over time, one day everybody is musing on a robot car who (that) must choose who to kill, then a small rna virus arrives and everybody turns to the problem of mechanical ventilators, except that not, nobody wants to acknowledge that in the Covid19 epidemics thousand of critical patients are subject to rationing life/death decisions based of a simple rule or a more complex clinical evalution algorithm? And the dilemma goes: you save a 60-yearld old man in perfect shape of a 35-year old pregnant woman with breast cancer ?
Facing Covid-19 in Italy — Ethics, Logistics, and Therapeutics on the Epidemic’s Front Line
New England Journal of Medicine has a retrospective on the ICU crisis in Italy where decisions around scarce mechanical ventilators are actually done, at time of writing over 4,000 people dead and this charts show the problem in stricking clarity
(originates from widespread ideas in Italy that when you die of Coronavirus in Germany with comorbidity the death is then attribute to the comorbidity, so they come out better at numbers
info page on case collection at Robert Koch Institute https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html
RKI is mandated to keep tabs on plagues by the Infection Protection Act https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/inf_dis_down.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
How is going to be after we contain the epidemic ?
Pandemics don’t go away with the season, not for good, expect to see a new outbreak in Autumn
This is what this simulation says https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf and it hypothesizes a policy framework like this
suppression strategies to cap ICU cases and preserve public health, awaiting a vaccine 18 months away
This is also what we know from a previous pandemic, the Asian Flu. Not quite a coronavirus but both rhinoviruses, quite as deadly and infectious although the Asian would kill the elder and the little kinds with Covid19 kills only the former.
It had 2 peaks in USA, in September and February and raged for 3 year in total