The new normal (Covid edition)

How is going to be after we contain the epidemic ?

Pandemics don’t go away with the season, not for good, expect to see a new outbreak in Autumn

This is what this simulation says https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf and it hypothesizes a policy framework like this Screenshot 2020-03-17 at 21.33.48

suppression strategies to cap ICU cases and preserve public health, awaiting a vaccine 18 months away

This is also what we know from a previous pandemic, the Asian Flu. Not quite a coronavirus but both rhinoviruses, quite as deadly and infectious although the Asian would kill the elder and the little kinds with Covid19 kills only the former.

Flu pandemics recur reliably but unpredictably every decade or so, and their extent and intensity varies. With COVID19, we may be in midst of a once-every-50-years event, perhaps similar to 1957 pandemic, but not as bad as the 1918 pandemic. Let’s talk about the 1957 pandemic. 1/

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 14, 2020

It had 2 peaks in USA, in September and February and raged for 3 year in total

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