secular deflation

Some tech are deflationary and at every bubble burst interest rates go lower

Screenshot 2019-09-19 at 18.58.08

form here

where it also shows that exponential does not goes well with natural phenomena

Screenshot 2019-09-19 at 19.02.00.png

 

Facebook and antitrust (reading list)

Relevant Market https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/facebook-and-antitrust-part-1-what-relevant-market

Consumer Harm https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/facebook-and-antitrust-part-2-where-consumer-harm

don t forget to check for part 3

Part 3: Will structural remedies solve allegd problems ? https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/facebook-and-antitrust-part-3-will-structural-remedies-solve-alleged-problems

parallels now and the 30’s

after world war 1 US becomes biggest lender and at once protectionist. Borrowers were forced to economic autarchy to serve the external debt

China and US are undergoing the great disentanglment, more symbolic than actual so far but a good start.

fun history fact: Norman Angell “The Great Illusion” forecasted in 1910 no war because of shared economic interests. He was proven spectacularly wrong but in the end he was absolutely right: war was a disaster for all the countries that fought it

Then we should note that wars can happen despite shared economic interests, race for the bottom of nationalists and populists.Breaking globalization can have handsome domestic payoff

the problem is AI or monopolies ?

reasoning on this, it is like shared economy workers, new app-dependent freelancers are digging their won grave by working with Uber.

App economies give increasing return to scale, capital piles up into winners, dominant positions are achieved and used to push labor-saving autonomy technologies that are not yet developed nor ready for market. Dominant position in this way have a distortionary effect which will have self-fulfilling effects on employment.

But in the end it is not just automation and AI to create unemployment, it will be monopolies striving for labor-saving technologies while resources could have been used to augmenting solutions.

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here Huawei founder seems to suggest that AI will bring industrial advantage back to countries most educated with most capital to spend, a polarization in international economic performance, where Switzerlad with robots will produce like a country of 80 millions, Germany like a 800 million contry etc. One order of magnitude, exponential technology. While less “developed” countries (less capital, less skills) will keep producing things not apt for robots and achieve le scale/network economies.

(ITW is here http://xinsheng.huawei.com/cn/index.php?app=group&mod=Bbs&act=detail&tid=4279851)