parallels now and the 30’s

after world war 1 US becomes biggest lender and at once protectionist. Borrowers were forced to economic autarchy to serve the external debt

China and US are undergoing the great disentanglment, more symbolic than actual so far but a good start.

fun history fact: Norman Angell “The Great Illusion” forecasted in 1910 no war because of shared economic interests. He was proven spectacularly wrong but in the end he was absolutely right: war was a disaster for all the countries that fought it

Then we should note that wars can happen despite shared economic interests, race for the bottom of nationalists and populists.Breaking globalization can have handsome domestic payoff


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