one definition of climate justice

the top 1% should reduce emissions by a factor of 30 (to 1/30th of current level) in order to have the bottom 50% treble their emissions (the numbers behind this are well explained here

Johan Rockstrom at COP26

Johan presents 10 takeouts from the IPCC report which negotiators should keep in mind in Glasgow

Linear cuts of 2 billion Gton a year to have some chance to meet the 1.5 degrees target, 4 billions Gton a year to be fairly sure to meet it

Global warming is human-made, some global warming gases are camuoflaging as beneficial aerosol but in the end are contributing to the co2 balance, this is a critical situation.

Megafires will be the new normal, and so marine life and habitat destruction

Risk of tipping points decrease at 1.5 degrees, increases at higher temps, beware of possible cascading of tipping points: cold water from the arctic into the atlantic, the amazon burns due to failing monsoons, warmer seas disintegrate the antartica shel, sea level rise. This is just one of many.

Btw, carbon markets now cover 20% of emissions but prices are high enough only in Europe

expanding on the concept of climate justice, there is a great substack by adam tooze which delves into the theme of inequality, there s great inequality between countries in emissions, but there is a bigger emissions inequality within countries, so tackling climate change requires also tackling income and wealth inequality. Case in point, emission growth in Far East is led by China, and China has higher Gini than the US; funny enough for a “communist” country

So, the problem is the top 10% who commands half of the world income and prodice half of the world emissions, a curve showing this dubbed the Dinosaur curve

Branko Milanovic, who is a scholar in economic inequality, focus on the 10% habit of flying arond the world and does a thought experiment: in 2020, due to coronavirus, flights were only 60% of 2019, so there is a way to keep people from flying, taxes, permits, whatever is doable. Unemployemnt in the industry, slump in tourism revenues worldwide, holidays flow will rearrange and with some govermnet money, things can smoothly become more green. Decarbonizing and averting the worst of global warming requires bold step, limiting air travel should be tried. Read here

out of Glasgow

150 trillion public/private committment to climate crisis, while the paltry 100 billion promised to less developed countries hasn’t been paid out yet. Promesse da marinaio

Daniela Gabor notes that IMF paper on climate crisis quotes 23 time “carbon pricing” and only once “industrial policy”. So imagine IMF finance conditional to setting a price on carbon, imposed on poor countries, reminiscent of stabilization policies in the 80s. Will it work ? Gabor and PolicyTensor doubt it

Daniela Gabor

IMF report

Policy Tensor ESG and Carbon Pricing La La Lands

Meanwhile Tooze reviews Andrea Malm and notes: Green New Deal appeals to economic mobilization in WW2 USA, Malm rather prefers lenin’s mobilization in 1919-21 russia. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Green Leninism

LRB has a second review of Malm’s book, this one is less theoretical and more historical and facts “Malm and the Zetkin Collective’s claim is not that far-right parties happen to exploit voter prejudice against both migration and climate mitigation, but that these two things are necessarily linked. They see ‘fossil fascism’ as an emergent political formation, linking ‘primitive’ fossil capital – direct extractors, which can’t survive divestment – with racist politics.”

Elite ideologies and ground realities

Greta Thunberg to politicians “Iask you to listen to science and act”

Great cartoon summing up Greta’s thinking in darkish mood

Policy Tensor, great read how elite ideologies ignoring ground realities have led to countless disasters from WWI all the way to the great monetarist austerity, and carbon pricing, as we comes to climate change again

Modern slavery, according to ancient philosophers

click here and get to listen to David Graeber saying that Aristotle would not find much a distinction between the situation where you are so indebted that you sell yourself into slavery to work 12 hours a day, isn’t very different from the contemporary situation where you rent yourself to work 12 hours a day because you are indebted

It’s Graeber talking about his book Debt the first 5,000 years

Facebook, change name or hands ?

“Facebook has become synonymous with hate speech, disinformation, election interference, and even genocide” Vice said it

But, given FB governance it is really Mark Zuckerberg name that is associated to “hate speech, disinformation, election interference, and even genocide”. So nae change ? No, change CEO, Zuck should resign

But even better, Zeckerberg should be taxed and forced out of his control of Facebook in light of his manifest incapacity to manage the company on a civil course. Communism? Authoritarian move ?

It was done in post-war Japan in a democratic conetxt and it led to the Japanese economic miracle: What eating the rich made for Japan on Youtube, the of Zaibastsu conquest of Japanese economy and their undoing at the hands of the Japanese government with forced sales, taxes and hyperinflation

Well, I am not in US and not in a position to ask my gorvernment to undo Facebook, the US should do it, its doable, its perfectly democratic, it will do great for the future

Where Im a citizen, I am arther in the position to ask that my use of facebook is protected with adversary interoperability

CO2 in time and space

Half of emissions took place after Kyoto, a quarter in the past 10 years

This chart show emission intensity and szie per country, look how small Africa, and the width of Africa will double during this century

emissions are exponential, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, exemplified by the famous Keeling curve measured at Mauna Loa, it seems linear, but really a polynomial fit wors better

I am wondering, emissions are exponential, co2 concentration is nearly linear, how does global warming behave ? LEt’s go and look for a radiative forcing curve. Found on wikipedia, seems linear

and so is temperature grwoth vs 19th century baseline, we are at 1,07 degrees now. Which seems linear since we have been measuring co2 concentration in the atmosphere

and then we have climate, which is a complex system which might have feedbacks and tipping points.

Mutual Aid

Kropotkin was no crakcpot this was biologist Stephen Jay Gould in 1988, mostly on the basis that K. built on the work of Russian biologists in the arctic and the taiga where you don’t get much competitive darwinism on which anglosaxon scholars have been fixated, with conseguent social darwinism ideas being derived

I found it on Graeber’s intro to a new edition of Kropotkin’s Mutual Aid

There I discovered Murray Bookchin, or maybe rediscovered? I had Post-scarcity Anarchism on some reading list, SF related, Bank’s Culture books I guess. What I did not know it is that he inspired the Rojava confedralism during the Syrian war.

From Gould: ” I like to apply a somewhat cynical rule of thumb in judging arguments about nature that also have overt social implications (..) I see no evidence for Teilhard’s noosphere, for Capra’s California style of holism, for Sheldrake’s morphic resonance. Gaia strikes me as a metaphor, not a mechanism. (Metaphors can be liberating and enlightening, but new scientific theories must supply new statements about causality. Gaia, to me, only seems to reformulate, in different terms, the basic conclusions long achieved by classically reductionist arguments of biogeochemical cycling theory.)


things that work in TMFTF:

aerosol in the atmosphere to increase albedo, maybe

ecoterrorism, defintely so

slowing glaciers by pumping out water at the bottom, keeping oil riggers happy

organic agriculture, overcoming modernism in agriculture. It also sequesters carbon in the fertile level of the ground

CQE Climate Quantitative Easing, creating a crypto and allocating it to carbon sequestration

wildlife corridors averywhere

upgraded management of water resources, generally caring for things rather than not

easier said than done, but moving away from capitalism will help

nations states will stay, central banks will take leadership in financing postcapitalismm with cretive money.

China will rush ahead of US

and yeah ! Diirigibles and blimps everywhere, hypertech sailboats with 7 masts, that’s the way to go

ITW with the author

crooked timber run a series of posts on the book, Robinson replied, start from his reply and you will find the 8 articles

from the bottom, one can still make the difference

forget rousseau democracy and the centralized, fake-modernist, ultimately a scam of the rousseau platform

a bit of direct digital government can be seen in action now on euthanasia and cannabis referendum, which can be signed digitally with Spid

Stefano Quintarelli got Spid approved in Parliament working on it over 3 years and 3 governments

The Radicali, Associazione Luca Coscioni, Magi and Cappato got the parliament to approve the use of Spid for collocting signatures toward a new referendum

Spid is a public platform of digital identity

GMO’s some links

U.Chicago announces a RNA modification that yields 50% more in rice and potatoes

pretty good, if demonstrated, never take PR at face value. WIll it be easily accepted

UPDATE Derek Lowe wrote about it and exxplained a bit the role of FTO enzyme in animal and plants

Golden rice had a lot of trouble (vitamin A rich rice for developing countries)

BT modification are blocked in some places, Italy and EU included. Bt is a transgenic modification, plants are modified with genes from Bacillus Thurigiensis and become resistant to some pests, which the bacillum is resistant itself

I managed to put all this together since I have been following Channa Prakash on Twitter and he always curses the fools who do not allow Bt GMO’s in their countries, while the neighbour does and produces much more

Speaking of fools, we are always folled by randomness, As Taleb says, and Taleb says that transgenic modifications fall in higher risk class versus normal mutations, so we shild apply the precautionary principle