a bit of vaccine news and vaccine nationalism
Moderna all in one day, last Monday, first positive results of trial, collects 1,34 billion in new stocks offering at 30 billion valuation, to be used for vaccine production https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/moderna-eyes-1-34-billion-stock-offering-to-manufacture-covid-19-vaccine
Sanofi says US will be the first to get vaccine since they invested in it https://www.businessinsider.com/potential-coronavirus-vaccine-united-states-first-french-pharmaceutical-sanofi-ceo-2020-5?IR=T
Advent will give the UK government the first 30 million doses of vaccine co-developed in Italy with IRBM https://www.irbm.com/press-review/london-reserves-30-million-doses-of-the-vaccine-born-between-oxford-and-pomezia-rome/
Let’s zoom out, The EU held a funding conference 2 weeks ago, collecting almost €8 billion. Bill Gates donated but the US was not even there, China attended but did not donate. Neither did Russia nor India attend. The world is divided in 5 blocks, each block has its own vaccine strategy
A beautiful 3d on vaccine and geopolitics by Paul Poast. Vaccine nationalism is a real risk, an aspect of the power politics of pandemics https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1257642933949476866
In the general uncooperative and nationalistic stance on Covid and vaccine, a country like Italy, biggest pharma producer in EU, should bet on one or more vaccine candidates and start building productive capacity. It would be an effective industrial policy and would give more chances to get the vaccine early.
Will we grab a few billions off the ESM and invest it? Or will we wait for the EU to ivenst its own 8 billions and dictate the strategy?
Coronavirus phase 2
pessimism: antibodies not lasting, common cold coronavirus does not generate lasting antibodies, animal coronavirus creates trouble to vaccines https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698979285991424
Positive thinkng, we can make a plan, Broad testing pun intended, Broad lab in Harvard https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/broad-institute-races-to-enable-coronavirus-testing/hacked to make 1 million tampons a day,
Harvard plan to secure USA with tampons would cost 15 billion but actually worth, Roadmap to pandemic resilience https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf
Propublia 3d on what to do: https://twitter.com/propublica/status/1253351877787467779
common sense considerations by an ex expatriate, no matter you think you re staying 6 months or 6 years make your place comfortable
phase 2 could last 12 months but also longe, a word of caution by Derek lowe. Let’s build up resilience like it could be 12 years, we won’t regret anyhow. WIn win
big brother 1984 Orwell
little father Josif Stalin
Korea contains the epidemic with snooping technologies and quarantine
China (and Italy) is ordering everybody home in a general lockdown
fighting a virus is at the opposite end of liberal laissez faire, fighting the epidemic requires applying some power of restriction and the target of this power unveils two different model and ideas of power.
The jury is out wheter the 2 different way of tackling the epidemic are equally effective. Korea seems to have blocked it in a shorter time with less economic damage, compared to China. Will Italy’s blockade succeed in flattening the curve ?
Tyler Cowen advocates state-capacity libertarianism https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/what-libertarianism-has-become-and-will-become-state-capacity-libertarianism.html
Cartels in pre-war Germany, from Competition Policy in Germany
Fear not China, Seeing Like a Finite State Machine
“The theory behind this is one of strength reinforcing strength – the strengths of ubiquitous data gathering and analysis reinforcing the strengths of authoritarian repression to create an unstoppable juggernaut of nearly perfectly efficient oppression. Yet there is another story to be told – of weakness reinforcing weakness. Authoritarian states were always particularly prone to the deficiencies identified in James Scott’s Seeing Like a State – the desire to make citizens and their doings legible to the state, by standardizing and categorizing them, and reorganizing collective life in simplified ways, for example by remaking cities so that they were not organic structures that emerged from the doings of their citizens, but instead grand chessboards with ordered squares and boulevards, reducing all complexities to a square of planed wood”
The latest link is where Italo Calvino can be used as perfect metaphor of epistemic confrontation in the field of politics
Pether Thiel in a speech, if blockchain is libertarian, can’t we say AI is communist ? He does not say where his Plantyr company stands though
“If we were to tell the two technological stories about scale at this point, one of them is still the sort of crypto revolution which is still going on with Bitcoin and has this sort of this libertarian potential. But I think there is sort of an alternate tech story which is about AI, big data, centralized databases, surveillance, which does not seem libertarian at all. You’re sort of going to have the big eye of Sauron watching you at all times, in all places. And I often think that we live in a world where the ideology always has a certain veil on it. So if we say that crypto is libertarian, why can’t we say that AI is communist, and at least have the sort of alternate account of scale?”
Book: The Nazi Seizure of Power by William Sheridan Allen
Book: The Language df the 3rd Reich by Viktor Klemperer
Book: How Real is Real by Paul Watzlawick
Book: The True Believer by Eric Hoffer
Ben Evans says that algo is necessary, the newsfeed can’t be consumed if it’s not algorithmic,necessary evil ? Whenever I read himthe death of the newsfedeed seems his defense against thinking of any action against GAFA monopolies
On the other hand I alway think I should be able to plug my algo’s and filters to my newsfeed, and Cory Doctorow nails it in his request to promote interoperability, Subject platform to rules but exempt syndication services from all. I should be able to let my 3rd-party provider of choice organize my online world, not Zuckerberg
China has a lead in medium range land launche missiles due to old nuclear agreement, and has developed “carrier killers” to keep the US fleet at bay
US ha trouble with anti-ballistic missiles which do not seem to perform right, that is the archivolt of the strategiuc doctrine which in turn apperas shacky
Scitific American article: Broken Shield issue June 2019, no link
The president was expressing extraordinary faith in the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, currently the country’s sole guard against intercontinental ballistic missiles that carry nuclear warheads. But his faith was woefully misplaced, and facts belie his claim. U.S. military testing data show there is no basis to expect GMD interceptors to work more than about 50 percent of the time. Using multiple interceptors against each target could in some cases improve these odds but will not funda- mentally change the situation. The chances of a nuclear weapon getting through in a real-world attack using multiple missiles is still dangerously high. Our analysis of all 19 tests done—the most recent one was in late March—as well as several government re- views of the program, shows an alarmingly high failure rate.