SF and technology lifecycle

” I have a theory about why the cyberpunks and the early industrial sci-fi writers got it so right. When new general purpose technologies (engines, electricity, computers, the internet) are emerging, it’s easy for speculative fiction writers to imagine a lot of things you could do with the new technologies. But then when writers observe continuous improvement of existing technologies — Moore’s Law, more powerful engines, etc. — they tend to project it out too far, and wind up writing about fantastic super-technologies that don’t end up getting invented for a very long time. That’s why early industrial sci-fi gave way to space opera, and cyberpunk gave way to Singularity sci-fi about artificial general intelligence, personality upload, and so on.2

that was Noah Smith and the theory is here http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/what-we-didnt-get.html

the quote i s taken from is substack here https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/cyberpunk-came-true-so-whats-next

Good predictions

Dubner and LEavitt forecast on link between abortion and crime reduction held over the past 20 years


In 1982 Exxon scientists predicted the CO2 level in 2019