based on “structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness”

formulated here in 2010 https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

the science behind explained here http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-science-behind-my-forecast-for-2020/

Yhe Structural-demographic model components from here https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6qp8x28p

I just realized I bought Urchin’s book Ultrasociety already maybe 5 years https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27867828-ultrasociety

the new book “Secular Cycles” reviewd by Scott Alexander https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bPH2az479gzxDMbf/book-review-ages-of-discord