Planning bias, can’t forecast what will take me to do something, solution: my outside view is my last CFO when I was working at a company’s startup incubator, he would take my financial forecasts and would say “I cut it to 30% and out it in my budget” Now, whenever i plan things, I do the “cut to 30%” myself, I am taking an outside view https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy